Global population will at some point reach its peak.

Declining birth rates driven by reproductive freedom and ageing populations will shape future economic, political and social systems creating new disruptions and increasing social and economic pressure.

Think shortages in workforce labour, growing pressure on healthcare, not to mention pressures on social welfare and increased pressure on retirement incomes and pensions. Less working-ageing citizens means a smaller pool of taxpayers and less budget for government spending on infrastructure, education and healthcare.

Japan, home to one of the world’s Blue Zones, hit a record high in 2021 with 86,510 centenarians — which means one Japanese person in every 1,450 is now aged over 100 . Interestingly women account for 88.4% of centenarians. Japan’s fertility rate currently sits at 1.3 and alongside the centenarians, 28.7% of its total population is aged 65+ .

Australia’s current fertility rate is 1.70, well below our peak of 2.02 in 2008; however the current housing affordability crisis and sustained economic anxiety may see more women defer their first or next baby over the next few years.

Experts predict that the Australian fertility rate will stabilise at a longer-term level of 1.62 from 2030, still well below the replacement level of 2.1.

A drop in working-age populations is likely to see a reduction in consumption levels, leading to a slowing down of economic growth. How will this shape future ideas about work, community and civic life? With fewer young people will we see more loneliness and related health impacts in the older population? How will this play out if we continue to shift toward increasingly deregulated and privatised aged care? What opportunities exist at the intersection of the aged care crisis and housing affordability?

What will happen to country’s innovation and entrepreneurship levels with fewer young people making up the workforce? Will we see a shift toward multi-generational workforces as the retirement age increases and pressure on pensions mean longer working lives?

In 2023 Bhutan launched The National Policy for Senior Citizens of Bhutan, a comprehensive document spanning 16 pages, with the overarching goal of fostering a harmonious society that fully integrates senior citizens into a moreinclusive framework.

Perhaps we may see future scientific efforts aimed at lengthening a woman’s childrearing window, improving fertility or bypassing aspects of traditional reproduction altogether? How will this play out as birthrates continue to decline and we are faced with the economic and social disruptions of an ageing population?

A new report recently released by the Copenhagen Institute for the Future explores the possible cascading impacts of population decline and the changing generational structure that lies ahead.

The report notes South Korea, whose fertility rate has been below the replacement level of 2.1 since 1983, and in 2001 was the first country to drop below 1 — as one to watch. How will South Korea navigate their potential futures as they face significant population decline? The world will be watching.

Copenhagen Institute for the Future > FARSIGHT Report

Further References

The Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR)

The WHO Age-friendly Cities Framework