Mashup | CLA + The Futures Wheel
Could we map 2nd + 3rd Order Implications of Emerging Technologies using a combination of CLA and The Futures Wheel?
An interesting question surfaced on Reddit the other day by @Zestyclose_Gur_512
How can we anticipate second or third order impact of emerging technologies effectively?
I want to understand how everyone here thinks about second or third order impact of emerging technologies. Specifically, what frameworks, principles or ways of thinking do you employ to ensure our responses to the future are not biased to just a techno-centric view. I tend to think more about how tech intertwines with society, values, norms and beliefs and what it means for our everyday lived experience.
My initial thoughts were that something obvious like the Futures Wheel might not shift you out of technocentric thinking. It can be easy to map cascading implications and get caught up in futurist fantasy and techno solves . . but another approach could be to utilise causal layered analysis with some futures wheel-style implication mapping. You might focus it on the new idea or emerging tech, the consumer behaviors around it, and the deeper needs or values that might drive its adoption or rejection and then consider it in the context of what else we know about the market, potential value dynamics and cultural norms etc.
Here’s an example of how that approach might play out in relation to Apple’s Airpods (not an emerging technology I know) but just trying to demonstrate how it might work . . 🤔
CLA : Apple Airpods (imagining wireless headphones were new)
Litany Level - Convenience, Portability
Systemic (Behavioural) Level - Smaller headphones might mean people wear them more often. Which means we might see people wearing them in the street. Which might lead to . . more pedestrian accidents and safety concerns. We might also see more cocooning as people are no longer available for spontaneous chat in the street. Which might lead to . . Increased social isolation. Increasing value of privacy. Decreased community interaction.
Worldview Discourse Level - Airpods become a signal of ‘Always-on’ and being constantly connected. Busyness as a value signal. Tech as Fashion
Myth and Metaphor Level - Cyborg Metaphor: the fusion of humans and their personal tech. Cocooning : people put their airpods in to create their own world.
Then maybe you could use that to pull out implications more specifically.
Potential First Order Implications : Increased valuing of convenience (always on) and and brand status / ego of tech as fashion.
Potential Second Order Implications : Shifting social norms as people wander around in their own world. Reduction in face to face interaction.
Potential Third Order Implications : Changing perceptions of personal space and privacy. Concentration of intentional community and decrease in cross-community influence due to decreased spontaneous interactions affects tolerance, worldviews, polarising perspectives. Curating a soundtrack to your life becomes the norm, further reinforcing the "social self".
Finding a solution to visualise second and third order implications
I used Kumu to visualise how we might think about the different CLA levels of the question and then map out cascasing implications from there. You can view the live map here.
An interesting question surfaced on Reddit the other day by @Zestyclose_Gur_512
How can we anticipate second or third order impact of emerging technologies effectively?
I want to understand how everyone here thinks about second or third order impact of emerging technologies. Specifically, what frameworks, principles or ways of thinking do you employ to ensure our responses to the future are not biased to just a techno-centric view. I tend to think more about how tech intertwines with society, values, norms and beliefs and what it means for our everyday lived experience.
My initial thoughts were that something obvious like the Futures Wheel might not shift you out of technocentric thinking. It can be easy to map cascading implications and get caught up in futurist fantasy and techno solves . . but another approach could be to utilise causal layered analysis with some futures wheel-style implication mapping. You might focus it on the new idea or emerging tech, the consumer behaviors around it, and the deeper needs or values that might drive its adoption or rejection and then consider it in the context of what else we know about the market, potential value dynamics and cultural norms etc.
Here’s an example of how that approach might play out in relation to Apple’s Airpods (not an emerging technology I know) but just trying to demonstrate how it might work . . 🤔
CLA : Apple Airpods (imagining wireless headphones were new)
Litany Level - Convenience, Portability
Systemic (Behavioural) Level - Smaller headphones might mean people wear them more often. Which means we might see people wearing them in the street. Which might lead to . . more pedestrian accidents and safety concerns. We might also see more cocooning as people are no longer available for spontaneous chat in the street. Which might lead to . . Increased social isolation. Increasing value of privacy. Decreased community interaction.
Worldview Discourse Level - Airpods become a signal of ‘Always-on’ and being constantly connected. Busyness as a value signal. Tech as Fashion
Myth and Metaphor Level - Cyborg Metaphor: the fusion of humans and their personal tech. Cocooning : people put their airpods in to create their own world.
Then maybe you could use that to pull out implications more specifically.
Potential First Order Implications : Increased valuing of convenience (always on) and and brand status / ego of tech as fashion.
Potential Second Order Implications : Shifting social norms as people wander around in their own world. Reduction in face to face interaction.
Potential Third Order Implications : Changing perceptions of personal space and privacy. Concentration of intentional community and decrease in cross-community influence due to decreased spontaneous interactions affects tolerance, worldviews, polarising perspectives. Curating a soundtrack to your life becomes the norm, further reinforcing the "social self".
Finding a solution to visualise second and third order implications
I used Kumu to visualise how we might think about the different CLA levels of the question and then map out cascasing implications from there. You can view the live map here.
An interesting question surfaced on Reddit the other day by @Zestyclose_Gur_512
How can we anticipate second or third order impact of emerging technologies effectively?
I want to understand how everyone here thinks about second or third order impact of emerging technologies. Specifically, what frameworks, principles or ways of thinking do you employ to ensure our responses to the future are not biased to just a techno-centric view. I tend to think more about how tech intertwines with society, values, norms and beliefs and what it means for our everyday lived experience.
My initial thoughts were that something obvious like the Futures Wheel might not shift you out of technocentric thinking. It can be easy to map cascading implications and get caught up in futurist fantasy and techno solves . . but another approach could be to utilise causal layered analysis with some futures wheel-style implication mapping. You might focus it on the new idea or emerging tech, the consumer behaviors around it, and the deeper needs or values that might drive its adoption or rejection and then consider it in the context of what else we know about the market, potential value dynamics and cultural norms etc.
Here’s an example of how that approach might play out in relation to Apple’s Airpods (not an emerging technology I know) but just trying to demonstrate how it might work . . 🤔
CLA : Apple Airpods (imagining wireless headphones were new)
Litany Level - Convenience, Portability
Systemic (Behavioural) Level - Smaller headphones might mean people wear them more often. Which means we might see people wearing them in the street. Which might lead to . . more pedestrian accidents and safety concerns. We might also see more cocooning as people are no longer available for spontaneous chat in the street. Which might lead to . . Increased social isolation. Increasing value of privacy. Decreased community interaction.
Worldview Discourse Level - Airpods become a signal of ‘Always-on’ and being constantly connected. Busyness as a value signal. Tech as Fashion
Myth and Metaphor Level - Cyborg Metaphor: the fusion of humans and their personal tech. Cocooning : people put their airpods in to create their own world.
Then maybe you could use that to pull out implications more specifically.
Potential First Order Implications : Increased valuing of convenience (always on) and and brand status / ego of tech as fashion.
Potential Second Order Implications : Shifting social norms as people wander around in their own world. Reduction in face to face interaction.
Potential Third Order Implications : Changing perceptions of personal space and privacy. Concentration of intentional community and decrease in cross-community influence due to decreased spontaneous interactions affects tolerance, worldviews, polarising perspectives. Curating a soundtrack to your life becomes the norm, further reinforcing the "social self".
Finding a solution to visualise second and third order implications
I used Kumu to visualise how we might think about the different CLA levels of the question and then map out cascasing implications from there. You can view the live map here.
An interesting question surfaced on Reddit the other day by @Zestyclose_Gur_512
How can we anticipate second or third order impact of emerging technologies effectively?
I want to understand how everyone here thinks about second or third order impact of emerging technologies. Specifically, what frameworks, principles or ways of thinking do you employ to ensure our responses to the future are not biased to just a techno-centric view. I tend to think more about how tech intertwines with society, values, norms and beliefs and what it means for our everyday lived experience.
My initial thoughts were that something obvious like the Futures Wheel might not shift you out of technocentric thinking. It can be easy to map cascading implications and get caught up in futurist fantasy and techno solves . . but another approach could be to utilise causal layered analysis with some futures wheel-style implication mapping. You might focus it on the new idea or emerging tech, the consumer behaviors around it, and the deeper needs or values that might drive its adoption or rejection and then consider it in the context of what else we know about the market, potential value dynamics and cultural norms etc.
Here’s an example of how that approach might play out in relation to Apple’s Airpods (not an emerging technology I know) but just trying to demonstrate how it might work . . 🤔
CLA : Apple Airpods (imagining wireless headphones were new)
Litany Level - Convenience, Portability
Systemic (Behavioural) Level - Smaller headphones might mean people wear them more often. Which means we might see people wearing them in the street. Which might lead to . . more pedestrian accidents and safety concerns. We might also see more cocooning as people are no longer available for spontaneous chat in the street. Which might lead to . . Increased social isolation. Increasing value of privacy. Decreased community interaction.
Worldview Discourse Level - Airpods become a signal of ‘Always-on’ and being constantly connected. Busyness as a value signal. Tech as Fashion
Myth and Metaphor Level - Cyborg Metaphor: the fusion of humans and their personal tech. Cocooning : people put their airpods in to create their own world.
Then maybe you could use that to pull out implications more specifically.
Potential First Order Implications : Increased valuing of convenience (always on) and and brand status / ego of tech as fashion.
Potential Second Order Implications : Shifting social norms as people wander around in their own world. Reduction in face to face interaction.
Potential Third Order Implications : Changing perceptions of personal space and privacy. Concentration of intentional community and decrease in cross-community influence due to decreased spontaneous interactions affects tolerance, worldviews, polarising perspectives. Curating a soundtrack to your life becomes the norm, further reinforcing the "social self".
Finding a solution to visualise second and third order implications
I used Kumu to visualise how we might think about the different CLA levels of the question and then map out cascasing implications from there. You can view the live map here.
An interesting question surfaced on Reddit the other day by @Zestyclose_Gur_512
How can we anticipate second or third order impact of emerging technologies effectively?
I want to understand how everyone here thinks about second or third order impact of emerging technologies. Specifically, what frameworks, principles or ways of thinking do you employ to ensure our responses to the future are not biased to just a techno-centric view. I tend to think more about how tech intertwines with society, values, norms and beliefs and what it means for our everyday lived experience.
My initial thoughts were that something obvious like the Futures Wheel might not shift you out of technocentric thinking. It can be easy to map cascading implications and get caught up in futurist fantasy and techno solves . . but another approach could be to utilise causal layered analysis with some futures wheel-style implication mapping. You might focus it on the new idea or emerging tech, the consumer behaviors around it, and the deeper needs or values that might drive its adoption or rejection and then consider it in the context of what else we know about the market, potential value dynamics and cultural norms etc.
Here’s an example of how that approach might play out in relation to Apple’s Airpods (not an emerging technology I know) but just trying to demonstrate how it might work . . 🤔
CLA : Apple Airpods (imagining wireless headphones were new)
Litany Level - Convenience, Portability
Systemic (Behavioural) Level - Smaller headphones might mean people wear them more often. Which means we might see people wearing them in the street. Which might lead to . . more pedestrian accidents and safety concerns. We might also see more cocooning as people are no longer available for spontaneous chat in the street. Which might lead to . . Increased social isolation. Increasing value of privacy. Decreased community interaction.
Worldview Discourse Level - Airpods become a signal of ‘Always-on’ and being constantly connected. Busyness as a value signal. Tech as Fashion
Myth and Metaphor Level - Cyborg Metaphor: the fusion of humans and their personal tech. Cocooning : people put their airpods in to create their own world.
Then maybe you could use that to pull out implications more specifically.
Potential First Order Implications : Increased valuing of convenience (always on) and and brand status / ego of tech as fashion.
Potential Second Order Implications : Shifting social norms as people wander around in their own world. Reduction in face to face interaction.
Potential Third Order Implications : Changing perceptions of personal space and privacy. Concentration of intentional community and decrease in cross-community influence due to decreased spontaneous interactions affects tolerance, worldviews, polarising perspectives. Curating a soundtrack to your life becomes the norm, further reinforcing the "social self".
Finding a solution to visualise second and third order implications
I used Kumu to visualise how we might think about the different CLA levels of the question and then map out cascasing implications from there. You can view the live map here.
Tags
Causal Layered Analysis, The Futures Wheel, Emerging Technologies
⚒️ | Kumu
You might also like
Political Notion
Information Architecture
Political Notion
Information Architecture
Neurodiversity Resources
Concept Development
Neurodiversity Resources
Concept Development
🛠️ Tools + Resources